Shot of the word coronavirus via University of Nottingham
Herd immunity to Covid-19 could be achieved with less people being infected than previously estimated according to new research.
Mathematicians from the University of Nottingham and University of Stockholm devised a simple model categorising people into groups reflecting age and social activity level. When differences in age and social activity are incorporated in the model, the herd immunity level reduces from 60% to 43%. The figure of 43% should be interpreted as an illustration rather than an exact value or even a best estimate. The research has been published today in Science.
Herd immunity happens when so many people in a community become immune to an infectious disease that is stops the disease from spreading. This happens by people contracting the disease and building up natural immunity and by people receiving a vaccine. When a large percentage of the population becomes immune to a disease, the spread of that disease slows down or stops and the chain of transmission is broken.
This research takes a new mathematical approach to estimating the herd immunity figure for a population to an infectious disease, such as the current COVID-19 pandemic. The herd immunity level is defined as the fraction of the population that must become immune for disease spreading to decline and stop when all preventive measures, such as herd immunity threshold for Covid-19 social distancing, are lifted. For COVID-19 it is often stated that this is around 60%, a figure derived from the fraction of the population that must be vaccinated (in advance of an epidemic) to prevent a large outbreak.
The figure of 60% assumes that each individual in the population is equally likely to be vaccinated, and hence immune. However, that is not the case if immunity arises as a result of disease spreading in a population consisting of people with many different behaviours.
Professor Frank Ball from the University of Nottingham participated in the research and explains: “By taking this new mathematical approach to estimating the level for herd immunity to be achieved we found it could potentially be reduced to 43% and that this reduction is mainly due to activity level rather than age structure. The more socially active individuals are then the more likely they are to get infected than less socially active ones, and they are also more likely to infect people if they become infected. Consequently, the herd immunity level is lower when immunity is caused by disease spreading than when immunity comes from vaccination.
Our findings have potential consequences for the current COVID-19 pandemic and the release of lockdown and suggests that individual variation (e.g. in activity level) is an important feature to include in models that guide policy.”
The Latest Updates from Bing News & Google News
Go deeper with Bing News on:
Herd immunity threshold for Covid-19
- Herd immunity and COVID-19: What you need to know
Herd immunity occurs when a large portion of a community (the herd) becomes immune to a disease. The spread of disease from person to person becomes unlikely when herd immunity is achieved. As a ...
- CDC Will No Longer Supply Free COVID-19 Vaccines for Uninsured Adults
Jeffrey Greenberg/Universal Images Group via Getty ImagesThe Biden Administration will end a program which provides free COVID-19 vaccines to uninsured adults.On Wednesday, the Centers for Disease ...
- Expert Defines: What is Herd Immunity? August
And right now, estimates for herd immunity to COVID-19 are somewhere over 70%. In other words, we really want 70% of our population or greater to have immune protection against the SARS-CoV-2 ...
- Sufficient herd immunity to COVID-19 in Russia achievable within 3 months — scientist
In this case, we will achieve the required herd immunity threshold within three months," he said. When asked whether introduction of QR codes will help to bring COVID-19 case numbers down ...
- Experts say the world may never reach herd immunity against Covid-19
Since the start of the coronavirus, governments worldwide ... Society of America estimated that Delta had pushed the threshold for herd immunity to well over 80 per cent and possibly close to ...
Go deeper with Google Headlines on:
Herd immunity threshold for Covid-19
[google_news title=”” keyword=”herd immunity threshold for Covid-19″ num_posts=”5″ blurb_length=”0″ show_thumb=”left”]
Go deeper with Bing News on:
Herd immunity threshold
- Herd immunity and COVID-19: What you need to know
Herd immunity occurs when a large portion of a community (the herd) becomes immune to a disease. The spread of disease from person to person becomes unlikely when herd immunity is achieved. As a ...
- Is 'herd immunity' in intensive care doing more harm than good?
Infections acquired by patients in intensive care units (ICUs) are bad news. These patients, many on life support, are already vulnerable. An infection will increase their chance of dying.
- Sufficient herd immunity to COVID-19 in Russia achievable within 3 months — scientist
"Daily vaccination must grow four-or fivefold. In this case, we will achieve the required herd immunity threshold within three months," he said. When asked whether introduction of QR codes will ...
- Has Delta Killed the Herd Immunity Dream?
Herd immunity is achieved when a certain threshold of the global population has either been inoculated against a pathogen or has recovered from infection. But whether or not it is achievable with ...
- Why herd immunity against Covid-19 is hard to achieve
If our recovery is tied to reaching certain herd immunity thresholds, we will likely remain shut down longer than if we vaccinated the vulnerable and then protected the rest of the population.
Go deeper with Google Headlines on:
Herd immunity threshold
[google_news title=”” keyword=”herd immunity threshold” num_posts=”5″ blurb_length=”0″ show_thumb=”left”]