via Stable Diffusion
Acting fast when an epidemic hits
A team of researchers at the University of Waterloo and Dalhousie University have developed a method for forecasting the short-term progression of an epidemic using extremely limited amounts of data.
Their model, the Sparsity and Delay Embedding-based Forecasting model, or SPADE4, uses machine learning to predict the progression of an epidemic using only limited infection data. SPADE4 was tested on both simulated epidemics and real data from the fifth wave of the Covid-19 pandemic in Canada and successfully predicted the epidemics’ progressions with 95 per cent confidence.
“Covid taught us that we really need to come up with methods that can predict with the least amount of information,” said applied mathematics PhD candidate Esha Saha, the lead author of the study. “If we have a new virus emerge and testing has just started, we have to know what to do in the short-term.”
When a disease breakout occurs – whether for new infections like Covid-19 or existing ones like Ebola – being able to predict the development of the disease is essential for making public policy decisions.
“That’s what policymakers need right at the beginning,” Saha said. “What should we do in the next seven days? How should I allocate resources?”
Traditionally, epidemiologists prefer to build and use complex models to understand the progression of epidemics. These models, however, have several drawbacks, Saha said.
They require complex demographic information that is frequently unavailable at the beginning of an outbreak. Even if that detailed information is available, the models may not accurately reflect the complexity of the population or dynamics of the disease.
The Waterloo research team’s new model addresses these drawbacks.
“By the time we’re working on vaccines and cures, we’re looking at longer-term data,” Saha said. “But when a new disease arrives, this method can help give us insight into how to behave.”
Original Article: Acting fast when an epidemic hits
More from: University of Waterloo | Dalhousie University
The Latest Updates from Bing News
Go deeper with Bing News on:
Epidemic progression
- Myopia epidemic: The impact of near work and lack of outdoor time
Discover why myopia, or nearsightedness, is becoming an epidemic. Learn about the causes and how spending time outdoors can help reduce myopia progression.
- Nearsightedness Rates Are Soaring. Here’s Why
Some even consider myopia, also known as nearsightedness, an epidemic. Optometry researchers ... Optometrists have learned a great deal about the progression of myopia by studying visual ...
- Nearsightedness Is at Epidemic Levels and the Problem Begins in Childhood
Optometrists have learned a great deal about the progression of myopia by studying visual development ... ‘Why so many people need glasses now.’ What’s Driving the Epidemic That still doesn’t explain ...
- Nearsightedness is at epidemic levels
Some even consider myopia, also known as nearsightedness, an epidemic. Optometry researchers ... Optometrists have learned a great deal about the progression of myopia by studying visual ...
- Nearsightedness is at epidemic levels
People with with high myopia, however, have increased risk of blindness and other severe eye problems, such as retinal detachment, in which the retina pulls away from the the back of the eye. The ...
Go deeper with Bing News on:
Forecasting epidemic progression
- FORECAST: Severe storms likely tonight!
After a breezy and mild afternoon, attention turns this evening to the threat for severe weather Storms will start to develop this afternoon along a dryline in Western Oklahoma. Large hail and ...
- An ALERT DAY for storm activity today- Kelly
EXTENDED FORECAST: Wednesday will be mild under partly sunny skies, before turning cooler Thursday and Friday with a chance of showers. More showers are expected Saturday, with Sunday being the ...
- FORECAST: Foggy morning, severe storms tonight
Storms will be severe after sunset Monday, especially north of I-40 Damaging wind gusts, large hail and tornadoes are all possible Mostly clear on Tuesday with warm, breezy conditions Another ...
- Forecasting pioneer: ‘A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose’
A notable forecaster of presidential elections said in a recent interview that “a lot would have to go wrong for [President Biden] to lose” in November. “That’s two keys off the top ...
- How weaker Tropical Storms impact forecasting
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER’S TRACK FORECASTS ARE MORE ACCURATE AND MORE CONSISTENT THAN INDIVIDUAL MODELS THAT ARE USED FOR MAKING THE FORECAST, BUT THERE STILL LIES SOME CHALLENGES.