It notes that PV energy produced in 2011 is 1,200GWh, but by 2020 this could be the monthly generation
The Australian Energy Market Operator has produced a landmark report that, for the first time, recognises rooftop solar PV as a significant source of energy in the National Electricity Market, and includes forecasts that could have a profound impact on the way electricity is consumed and produced – and talked about – in this country.
In a report entitled Rooftop PV Information Paper, AEMO says that up to 18,000MW of solar PV could be installed on Australian rooftops by 2031 – under its high growth scenario – when it could potentially account for around 10 per cent of the electricity produced in the country. Even its medium scenario predicts 12,000MW of rooftop PV.
The forecast by AEMO is the first formal recognition by an Australian energy authority of the potential of rooftop solar in Australia – something that had remained the province of the solar industry itself, as well as a handful of consultants, the Greens, advocacy groups, and web sites such as this.
The report is in marked contrast to the Draft Energy White Paper produced for, and released by, federal energy minister Martin Ferguson last December, which predicted that solar – in all forms, including utility-scale solar PV and solar thermal – would account for less than 3 per cent of Australia’s electricity capacity by 2030, or 2,000MW in all forms.
AEMO has not produced its own percentage estimates, but its top-end forecast suggests that rooftop PV could generate 28,000 gigawatt hours (GWh) of electricity in 2031. That is potentially around 10 per cent of the forecast for the entire eastern Australia grid by that year. In 2011, solar PV accounted for just 0.6 per cent of 196,440GWh produced. (It should be noted that the AEMO forecast is for the National Electricity Market only, so it excludes WA, the Northern Territory, and separate grid areas such as Mt Isa).
And while the Draft Energy White Paper suggested (to the amazement of many) that installations from rooftop PV would effectively cease after the renewable energy target ends in 2030, AEMO says the economics would be so compelling that by 2020 consumers could be getting a 3-4 year payback on solar PV and a 1-2 year payback by 2025. Based on its numbers, if the market does slow down around 2030 it would only be because it had become saturated!
via – Renew Economy – Giles Parkinson
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