Technologically possible, data-driven, and worthy of our investment
In the recent issue of EMBO reports, Barbara Han of the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies and John Drake of the University of Georgia Odum School of Ecology call for the creation of a global early warning system for infectious diseases. Such a system would use computer models to tap into environmental, epidemiological and molecular data, gathering the intelligence needed to forecast where disease risk is high and what actions could prevent outbreaks or contain epidemics.
An early warning system would shift the infectious disease paradigm from reactive — where first responders scramble to contain active threats, as in the recent Ebola and Zika outbreaks — to pre-emptive management of risk. Infectious disease intelligence could assess vulnerabilities based on the ebb and flow of risk in real-time, and inform targeted responses that minimize damages.
“For far too long our main strategy for tackling infectious disease has been defense after emergence, when a lot of people are already suffering,” Han explained, “We are at an exciting point in time where technology and Big Data present us with another option, one that is anticipatory and has real potential to improve global health security.”
Han and Drake propose that a three-tiered system with “watches,” “warnings” and “emergencies” — like that used for severe weather alerts — would help decision makers and the public to make more informed decisions. They explain, “Much of the destructive potential of infectious diseases stems from the fact that they often strike unexpectedly, leaving little time for preparation. The best countermeasure is therefore an early warning to give affected regions or communities more time to prepare for the impact.”
Machine learning methods have already proven successful at mining data from multiple sources to identify animal species that are likely to carry disease and geographic hotspots vulnerable to outbreaks of specific pathogens. Scaling up this effort to create a tool for global health authorities will require an increase in the stream of data available for modeling, investment in a quantitative workforce, and open dialogue among academic modelers and decision makers.
Data sharing is essential. Han explains, “Accurately predicting potential outbreaks and guiding effective responses relies on rapidly assimilating data from multiple sources to identify trigger conditions in real time. Ironically, in this age of Big Data, one of the few remaining hard limits on our forecasting ability is the volume and quality of basic scientific information. We can’t collect data on everything — yet — but, we are getting a better sense of the kinds of data that would be the most useful.”
Drake notes, “One of the key problems is figuring out how to integrate multiple data streams. Also, there are some aspects of epidemics that are poorly understood and can change quickly, such as how individual behavior changes in the face of a perceived acute health threat. We need better sources of information about these processes, if we are to develop a reliable basis for forecasting.”
A global early warning system for infectious diseases would be transformative in efforts to advance global health security and improve global health equity. Learn more about what is needed to harness Big Data and technology for the safety of all the world’s citizens in “Future directions in analytics for infectious disease intelligence” – http://embor.
Learn more: A global early warning system for infectious diseases
The Latest on: Global early warning system for infectious diseases
[google_news title=”” keyword=”global early warning system for infectious diseases” num_posts=”10″ blurb_length=”0″ show_thumb=”left”]
via Google News
The Latest on: Global early warning system for infectious diseases
- Changing climate causing mosquito-borne diseases to expand rapidlyon April 26, 2024 at 4:30 am
Our warming planet is meaning mosquito-borne diseases, such as malaria and dengue, are expanding rapidly, an expert has warned.
- Experts call for global genetic warning system to combat the next pandemic and antimicrobial resistanceon April 25, 2024 at 2:00 am
The COVID-19 pandemic turned the world upside down. In fighting it, one of our most important weapons was genomic surveillance, based on whole genome sequencing, which collects all the genetic data of ...
- Expert sounds alarm as mosquito-borne diseases become a global phenomenon in a warmer, more populated worldon April 24, 2024 at 3:20 pm
Infectious disease outbreaks in the aftermath ... importance of improved surveillance and early warning systems to tackle this now almost global phenomenon. Continue reading "Global warming ...
- Expert sounds alarm as mosquito-borne diseases become a global phenomenon in a warmer, more populated worldon April 23, 2024 at 5:00 pm
Efforts need to focus on enhancing surveillance with early warning and response systems similar ... on the distribution of infectious diseases' at the ESCMID Global Congress (formerly ECCMID ...
- On Earth Day, Climate Change’s Impact On Infectious Diseases Loomson April 22, 2024 at 9:08 am
From dengue to Zika to malaria, climate change is altering the impact of infectious diseases throughout the world. A robust surveillance system may help.
- Infectious Disease, An Overlooked Climate Change Impact: How Leaders Can Helpon April 10, 2024 at 7:30 am
Kamran Khan is a practicing infectious ... to new local or global disease threats. The best approach to using prediction models involves three steps. 1. Detect threats early, and look in ...
- How to Become an Infectious Disease Doctoron August 14, 2023 at 7:26 am
recently published an article warning of a severe current shortage of infectious disease physicians and noting that it is particularly problematic given the global coronavirus pandemic.
- Establishment of an Early-warning System for Infectious Diseases in Southern Africa Incorporating Climate Predictionson May 16, 2022 at 4:05 am
The ultimate aim of the research is to build an early warning system that can be applied in implementing effective countermeasures for infectious disease. Future application of the system for areas ...
- Infectious Diseases and Vaccineson April 1, 2022 at 7:07 am
Globally the incidence of infectious diseases has declined since 2000 ... grow and may become unsustainable for countries and health systems. The WBG pioneered global HIV and AIDS financing early on ...
- N.Y. disease outbreak called a global warningon December 23, 2021 at 12:46 am
Physicians for Social Responsibility warns that outbreaks of this and other mosquito-borne diseases will be on the rise if global warming remains on its current path. Infectious diseases such as ...
via Bing News