The observation that most of the viruses that cause human disease come from other animals has led some researchers to attempt “zoonotic risk prediction” to second-guess the next virus to hit us.
However, in an Essay publishing April 20th in the open access journal PLOS Biology, led by Dr Michelle Wille at the University of Sydney, Australia with co-authors Jemma Geoghegan and Edward Holmes, it is proposed that these zoonotic risk predictions are of limited value and will not tell us which virus will cause the next pandemic. Instead, we should target the human-animal interface for intensive viral surveillance.
So-called zoonotic viruses have caused epidemics and pandemics in humans for centuries. This is exactly what is occurring today with the COVID-19 pandemic: the novel coronavirus responsible for this disease – SARS-CoV-2 – emerged from an animal species, although exactly which species is uncertain.
Therefore, a key question is whether we can predict which animal or which virus group will most likely cause the next pandemic? This has led researchers to attempt “zoonotic risk prediction,” in which they attempt to determine which virus families and host groups are most likely to carry potential zoonotic and/or pandemic viruses.
Dr Wille and her colleagues identify several key problems with zoonotic risk prediction attempts.
First, they’re based on tiny data sets. Despite decades of work, we have probably identified less than 0.001% of all viruses, even from the mammalian species from which the next pandemic virus will likely emerge.
Second, these data are also highly biased towards those viruses that most infect humans or agricultural animals, or are already known to zoonotic. The reality is that most animals have not been surveyed for viruses, and that viruses evolve so quickly that any such surveys will soon be out of date and so of limited value.
The authors instead argue that a new approach is needed, involving the extensive sampling of animals and humans at the places where they interact – the animal-human interface. This will enable novel viruses to be detected as soon as they appear in humans and before they establish pandemics. Such enhanced surveillance may help us prevent something like COVID-19 ever happening again.
Original Article: Predicting the next pandemic virus is harder than we think
More from: University of Sydney
The Latest Updates from Bing News & Google News
Go deeper with Bing News on:
Predicting pandemics
- Predicting the top six UK fintech trends in 2023
However, despite all these challenges, the UK fintech market has grown steadily and has provided businesses with ways to remain ahead of the curve and offer simpler, more accessible financial services ...
- Economic predictions
The U.S. economy at the beginning of 2023 threatens a bumpy ride, but that didn’t stop a group of savvy economic leaders from giving their best shot at predictions on Wednesday, Jan. 18 at the Lyons ...
- A Secret Weapon in Preventing the Next Pandemic: Fruit Bats
More than four dozen Jamaican fruit bats destined for a lab in Bozeman, Montana, are set to become part of an experiment with an ambitious goal: predicting the next global pandemic. Bats worldwide are ...
- Luxury Rum Market 2023 Company Challenges, Latest Advancements, Growth Prediction, and Forecast by 2028
Luxury Rum Market Size is projected to Reach Multimillion USD by 2029, In comparison to 2022, at unexpected CAGR during ...
- OSU researchers develop new method to predict COVID-19 case surges
Oklahoma State University researchers announced they have developed a new method of predicting surges in infectious diseases, including COVID-19. Dr. Pratul Agarwal, assistant vice president of ...
Go deeper with Google Headlines on:
Predicting pandemics
[google_news title=”” keyword=”predicting pandemics” num_posts=”5″ blurb_length=”0″ show_thumb=”left”]
Go deeper with Bing News on:
Intensive viral surveillance
- COVID-19 remains lead respiratory virus in Sask.: report
Detailing the presence of several respiratory illnesses, the new data shows COVID-19 still tops hospitalizations and cases identified in the province. Another 18 ...
- Cory Franklin and Robert Weinstein: We need to boost COVID-19 surveillance to detect new viral variants
It is imperative that the world works with China and other COVID-19 hot spots to try to identify new viral variants.
- Surveillance: Longer and Higher with Chiavarone
Steve Chiavarone, Federated Hermes Head of Multi-Asset Solutions, says this rally can go longer and higher than expected. Ken Tropin, Graham Capital CEO, says it's a good time to be conservative ...
- Helix & CDC to Study the Role of Human Genetics in Vaccine Effectiveness
Jan. 4, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Helix, the leading population genomics and viral surveillance company in the nation, today announced a new Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) contract awarded by the ...
- New surveillance video released in Gordos incident shows moments leading up to viral video
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) - New surveillance video shows the moments leading up to a video that went viral of a woman being pulled by her hair at Gordos on Pensacola Street. WCTV reached out to the ...
Go deeper with Google Headlines on:
Intensive viral surveillance
[google_news title=”” keyword=”intensive viral surveillance” num_posts=”5″ blurb_length=”0″ show_thumb=”left”]