SubX, a research-to-operations project, shows promise for improved monthly forecasts
Scientists working on the next frontier of weather forecasting are hoping that weather conditions 3-to-4 weeks out will soon be as readily available as seven-day forecasts. Having this type of weather information—called subseasonal forecasts—in the hands of the public and emergency managers can provide the critical lead time necessary to prepare for natural hazards like heat waves or the next polar vortex.
Scientists like University of Miami (UM) Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science Professor Ben Kirtman and Assistant Professor Kathleen Pegion at George Mason University are leading the way to close this critical gap in the weather forecast system through the SubX project. SubX—short for The Subseasonal Experiment—is a research-to-operations project to provide better subseasonal forecasts to the National Weather Service.
“Subseasonal predictions is the most difficult timeframe to predict,” said Kirtman, a professor of atmospheric sciences and director of the NOAA Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS). “The hardest part is taking all the observations and putting them into the model.”
SubX is filling the gap between the prediction of weather and the prediction of seasonal conditions, which is guided by slowly evolving ocean conditions like sea surface temperatures and soil moisture and variability in the climate system that work on time scales of weeks. To get to the subseasonal scale, scientists need information on conditions that affects global weather such as large-scale convective anomalies like the Madden–Julian Oscillation in the tropical Indian Ocean into their computer models.
“The SubX public database makes 3-4 week forecasts available right now and provides researchers the data infrastructure to investigate how to make them even better in the future,” said Pegion.
SubX has already shown great promise forecasting weather conditions. It accurately predicted the amount of rainfall from Hurricane Michael-—roughly 50 mm, the 4th of July heat wave in Alaska where temperatures reached over 90 degrees Fahrenheit—20 to 30 degrees above average in some locations —and the polar vortex that hit the midwestern U.S. and eastern Canada in late January and killed 22 people.
For Kirtman and his team, the power to make these predictions requires the capacity to compute and store a large amount of data. This means they depend heavily on the UM Center for Computational Science’s (CCS) computing capability to handle the complex computation needed for their models. CCS resources are critical for Kirtman and Pegion to meet the on-time, in-real-time, all-the-time deadlines required for SubX to be successful.
SubX’s publicly available database contains 17 years of historical reforecasts (1999–2015) and more than 18 months of real-time forecasts for use by the research community and the National Weather Service.
As Kirtman and his research team pointed out in an Oct. 2019 article in the American Meteorological Society’s journal BAMS, “early warning of heat waves, extreme cold, flooding rains, flash drought, or other weather hazards as far as 4 weeks into the future could allow for risk reduction and disaster preparedness, potentially preserving life and resources. Less extreme, but no less important, reliable probabilistic forecasts about the potential for warmer, colder, wetter, or drier conditions at a few weeks lead are valuable for routine planning and resource management.”
Go deeper with Bing News on:
- UK hot weather forecast: Britain to bask in glorious 20C heatwave in days - latest mapson April 13, 2021 at 10:01 am
SUMMER is finally set to arrive as Britain will bask in a glorious heatwave with temperatures set to soar in days.
- 11:30AM VIDEO FORECAST — Tracking severe thunderstorms. Flash Flood Watch issued through Thursday. Here’s the details:on April 13, 2021 at 9:29 am
10:00AM VIDEO FORECAST from Meteorologist Scot Pilie -- Flash Flood Watch issued. Heavy rain & severe weather risk. Here's the details: After a quiet & lovely Monday, we're monitoring another ...
- Tuesday Weather Forecast - April 13, 2021on April 13, 2021 at 7:22 am
Find out what kind of weather we're expecting this week ... 9 hours ago Evening Forecast - 4/12/21Darla Givens delivers the latest 7-day forecast for the Sacramento region. 12 hours ago Will ...
- TODAY'S Forecast: The latest forecast from the KPIX 5 weather teamon April 13, 2021 at 6:54 am
12 hours ago Monday Evening Forecast With Paul HeggenMild temperatures. 13 hours ago COVID Recovery: East San Jose Neighborhood Calls On City To Buy Up Storefronts To Aid Struggling BusinessesHit ...
- National weather forecast: Storm system to bring widespread hazardson April 13, 2021 at 6:53 am
A slow-moving storm system will bring widespread weather hazards from the Great Basin through the Plains and up into the Great Lakes. Accumulating snow will fall from Colorado to the Upper Midwest ...
Go deeper with Google Headlines on:
Go deeper with Bing News on:
- A Lesson to Learn: Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)on April 13, 2021 at 10:26 am
Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX) went up by 0.56% from its latest closing price compared to the recent 1-year high of $113.96. The company’s stock price has collected 2.51% of gains in the last ...
- Expert Ratings for Starbuckson April 12, 2021 at 8:19 am
Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) has observed the following analyst ratings: 12 analysts offering 12-month price targets in the last 3 months for Starbucks evaluate the company at an average price target of ...
- How to Improve The Timing of Investment Decisions in Starbucks $SBUXon April 10, 2021 at 7:58 pm
If you were to buy Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) at a high, see it fall, and not be able to buy more on the dip like the big boys can, that would be troubling. Over time, Stock Traders Daily has found a ...
- Better Buy: McDonald's vs. Starbuckson April 9, 2021 at 9:01 am
Last June, I told investors to buy shares of Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) instead of McDonald's (NYSE:MCD). At the time, I noted Starbucks faced fewer competitors than McDonald's, had more growth ...
- Is Starbucks (SBUX) Stock Outpacing Its Retail-Wholesale Peers This Year?on April 8, 2021 at 9:25 am
Investors focused on the Retail-Wholesale space have likely heard of Starbucks (SBUX), but is the stock performing well in comparison to the rest of its sector peers? By taking a look at the stock ...