This summer’s world-wide heatwave makes 2018 a particularly hot year. As will be the next few years, according to a study led by Florian Sévellec, a CNRS researcher at the Laboratory for Ocean Physics and Remote Sensing (LOPS) (CNRS/IFREMER/IRD/University of Brest) and at the University of Southampton, and published in the 14 August 2018 edition of Nature Communications. Using a new method, the study shows that at the global level, 2018–2022 may be an even hotter period than expected based on current global warming.
Warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions is not linear: it appears to have lapsed in the early 21st century, a phenomenon known as a global warming hiatus. A new method for predicting mean temperatures, however, suggests that the next few years will likely be hotter than expected.
The system, developed by researchers at CNRS, the University of Southampton and the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, does not use traditional simulation techniques. Instead, it applies a statistical method to search 20th and 21st century climate simulations made using several reference models1 to find ‘analogues’ of current climate conditions and deduce future possibilities. The precision and reliability of this probabilistic system proved to be at least equivalent to current methods, particularly for the purpose of simulating the global warming hiatus of the beginning of this century.
The new method predicts that mean air temperature may be abnormally high in 2018-2022 – higher than figures inferred from anthropogenic global warming alone. In particular, this is due to a low probability of intense cold events. The phenomenon is even more salient with respect to sea surface temperatures, due to a high probability of heat events, which, in the presence of certain conditions, can cause an increase in tropical storm activity.
Once the algorithm is ‘learned’ (a process which takes a few minutes), predictions are obtained in a few hundredths of a second on a laptop. In comparison, supercomputers require a week using traditional simulation methods.
For the moment, the method only yields an overall average, but scientists now would like to adapt it to make regional predictions and, in addition to temperatures, estimate precipitation and drought trends.
Learn more: 2018-2022 expected to be abnormally hot years
Check this out – not related but please enjoy: https://chipperbirds.com/where-do-birds-go-when-it-rains/
The Latest on: Global warming
via Google News
The Latest on: Global warming
- NASA: Global warming could mean more extreme droughts, increased forest fires in Arizonaon January 22, 2021 at 4:31 pm
Here is what a NASA scientist said about record-breaking temperatures and what we can all do to help reduce the risks of global warming in Arizona.
- Guest opinion: David Reed: Family planning versus global warmingon January 22, 2021 at 3:00 pm
By David Reed . Last month at Columbia University, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterrez spoke very forcefully in his speech “The State of the Planet,” including w ...
- Bill Gates wants to 'cover the sun' to help counter global warmingon January 22, 2021 at 11:22 am
According to Forbes , Bill Gates is funding a project that would dim sunlight in order to "cool" the Earth. The research called " Stratospheric Controlled Disturbance Experiment " (SCoPEx for its ...
- Elon Musk to put $100M toward fighting global warmingon January 22, 2021 at 9:45 am
The money will go toward "a prize for best carbon capture technology," says the Tesla and SpaceX CEO. It's his latest effort to tackle climate change.
- Global Warming Gridlockon January 21, 2021 at 3:12 pm
Uncertainty over global climate negotiations is impeding investment into the low-carbon economy. But policy gridlock is not inevitable. In his lucidly argued and timely new book, David Victor gives a ...
- Video: Global Warming from 1880 to 2020on January 21, 2021 at 11:43 am
Earth’s global average surface temperature in 2020 tied with 2016 as the warmest year on record, according to an analysis by NASA. Continuing the planet’s long-term warming trend, the year’s globally ...
- Solving global warming is still a faraway goal | Commentaryon January 21, 2021 at 10:44 am
A recent article in a scientific journal has stirred up unwarranted optimism that we can quickly end the climate threat, but an Invading Sea columnist says that's unrealistic.
- Stronger storms: Jacksonville environmentalists hopeful Biden administration will combat global warmingon January 21, 2021 at 8:52 am
Environmentalists say rejoining the Paris Agreement is important for Florida because we are seeing the impacts of global warming.
- President Joe Biden rejoins the Paris climate accord in first move to tackle global warmingon January 20, 2021 at 2:21 pm
President Joe Biden on Wednesday signed an executive order to rejoin the U.S. into the Paris climate agreement, his first major action on global warming.
via Bing News