New multi-scenario modelling of world human population has concluded that even stringent fertility restrictions or a catastrophic mass mortality would not bring about large enough change this century to solve issues of global sustainability.
Published today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA, ecologists Professor Corey Bradshaw and Professor Barry Brook from the University of Adelaide‘s Environment Institute say that the “virtually locked-in” population growth means the world must focus on policies and technologies that reverse rising consumption of natural resources and enhance recycling, for more immediate sustainability gains.
Fertility reduction efforts, however, through increased family-planning assistance and education, should still be pursued, as this will lead to hundreds of millions fewer people to feed by mid-century.
“Global population has risen so fast over the past century that roughly 14% of all the human beings that have ever existed are still alive today – that’s a sobering statistic,” says Professor Bradshaw, Director of Ecological Modelling in the Environment Institute and School of Earth and Environmental Sciences. “This is considered unsustainable for a range of reasons, not least being able to feed everyone as well as the impact on the climate and environment.
“We examined various scenarios for global human population change to the year 2100 by adjusting fertility and mortality rates to determine the plausible range of population sizes at the end of this century.
“Even a world-wide one-child policy like China’s, implemented over the coming century, or catastrophic mortality events like global conflict or a disease pandemic, would still likely result in 5-10 billion people by 2100.”
The researchers constructed nine different scenarios for continuing population ranging from “business as usual” through various fertility reductions, to highly unlikely broad-scale catastrophes resulting in billions of deaths.
“We were surprised that a five-year WWIII scenario mimicking the same proportion of people killed in the First and Second World Wars combined, barely registered a blip on the human population trajectory this century,” says Professor Barry Brook, Chair of Climate Change at the Environment Institute for this study, and now Professor of Environmental Sustainability at the University of Tasmania.
The Latest on: Human population
via Google News
The Latest on: Human population
- Human-wildlife conflict deaths worry govton May 18, 2022 at 3:05 pm
GOVERNMENT has expressed concern over rising fatalities due to human-wildlife conflicts. The deaths are mainly resulting from a growing “unsustainable” elephant population. Environment, Climate, ...
- CAN Mobilities Emerges from Stealth with First Smart Cane to Transform Human Mobilityon May 18, 2022 at 6:41 am
The CAN Go is a state-of-the-art connected device that helps people with mobility challenges walk confidently and live independently SAN FRANCISCO, May 18, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- CAN Mobilities today ...
- Adrestia Appoints Human Genetics Leader, Professor John Perry, to Build Human Genetics Computational Platformon May 18, 2022 at 3:32 am
Adrestia Therapeutics, a leader in synthetic rescue therapies for genetic diseases, today announced the appointment of Professor John R.B. Perry as its Vice President, Human Genetics. Dr Perry is a ...
- Got Milk: Bronze Age Population Soared Thanks to Livestockon May 17, 2022 at 3:12 pm
Livestock and dairying were the key to the population boom and early symbols of civilization on the Eurasian Steppe during the Bronze Age, according to new research. A new study by the German Max ...
- China’s population control measure “One Child Nation” on PBS’S INDEPENDENT LENS, May 23 at 10 pmon May 17, 2022 at 3:00 am
NANFU WANG’S ONE CHILD NATION ON PBS’S INDEPENDENT LENS The Acclaimed Documentary Exploring the Devastating Impacts of China’s One Child Policy to air on Monday, May 23 at 10 pm China’s one-child ...
- Research & Commentary: New Study Details Damage Done to Vulnerable Avian Populations By Wind and Solar Energyon May 16, 2022 at 5:00 pm
A study published in March in Royal Society Open Science, a peer-reviewed journal claims that wind turbine and solar farms in California are making life significantly worse for nearly half of the ...
- Medical student: With an aging population, we must rethink our healthcare systemon May 15, 2022 at 4:00 am
Guest columnist Om Sakhalkar writes about America's growing aging population and legislative solutions to ensure their care.
- Massachusetts' black bear population keeps growingon May 9, 2022 at 10:40 am
The black bear population in Massachusetts is continuing to grow and expand east of Interstate 495, according to Bay State bear researchers who urge people to take precautionary measures to avoid ...
- Why the wheels of human history seemed to turn faster for someon April 29, 2022 at 7:28 am
Populations that domesticated animals early ... results from accumulated technological progress and that investment in human capital promotes technological development. But that still leaves ...
- As Hill Country animal shelters overflow amid human population boom, calls for change growon April 21, 2022 at 12:17 pm
As Hill Country animal shelters overflow amid human population boom, calls for change grow A cat reaches April 19, 2022, through a kennel door at the San Marcos Regional Animal Shelter.
via Bing News