Developing better weather forecasts

By being more precise in what is uncertain, the weather forecasts will become more reliable. A new method for forecasting the weather is now being developed at Uni Research.

PhD candidate Torge Lorenz is busy improving the short-term weather forecasts, i.e. weather forecasts up to two days.

“The forecasts can be used for offshore wind energy, marine operations and in several other areas,” explains Lorenz.

Covering the uncertainties

Together with Met.no and Statoil among others, he is developing the new weather forecasting method. He is doing this by working on a method that is under development at the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and transferring this to short-term forecasts.

“We use a collection of model runs instead of just one and by doing so we better cover the uncertainties in the forecast,” explains Torge Lorenz.

His mentor, research leader Idar Barstad at Uni Research, elaborates:

“This will be a more physically consistent way of forecasting the weather. Previously the estimate for uncertainty in the weather was based on a less physical method but now ECMWF has switched to a new method which provides a more precise method for uncertainty,” says Barstad.

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